ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, POVERTY, AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA (1980 -2017)

Abstract

The study assessed the climate change, poverty, and agricultural growth performance in Nigeria from 1980 to 2017. It specifically examined and analyzed the trend of climate change, poverty, and agricultural growth performance; examined the effect of climate variability, agricultural growth, and other selected macro-economic variables on economic growth; determined the relationship between climate variability, agricultural growth, poverty index, and economic growth; examined the effect of climate change on poverty level in Nigeria; assessed the impact of climate change on Nigeria’s agricultural share of GDP and ascertained the influence of agricultural growth performance on Nigeria poverty index within the reference period. The study made use of data from secondary sources obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, Annual Report and Statements of Account from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Nigeria Meteorological Agency, World Bank and Index Mundi. The data series of interest covered the period from 1980-2017. It was revealed that forest depletion (0.0005*), carbon emissions (0.0185*), and government expenditure on agriculture (0.0104*) were negatively significant variables affecting real gross domestic product within the reference period while the agricultural production index (0.0002*) was a positively significant variable affecting economic growth. It was also revealed that temperature (0.0316*) was a negatively significant variable affecting poverty within the reference period while forest depletion (0.0026*) was a positively significant variable affecting poverty level. The study further revealed that temperature (0.0115*) and carbon emissions (0.0213*) were positively significant variables affecting Nigeria’s agricultural share of GDP within the reference period and finally government expenditure on agriculture (0.0228*) was revealed to be a positively significant variable affecting poverty index in Nigeria within the reference period. The study therefore recommended that the Federal Government of Nigeria embark on poverty alleviation by providing modern infrastructures in the rural areas and not only in the city. Adequate infrastructures will boost agriculture which can create jobs for the jobless youth and enhance the per capita income of the country, also recycling of the important climate factors should be encouraged in Nigeria to maintain a steady supply of agricultural produce.