TREND ANALYSIS OF COCOA INDUSTRY PRODUCTIVITY TO SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This studyamined the trend analysis of cocoa output and export to certain macroeconomic and climatic variables between 1980 and 2016. The exponential trend model, quadratic trend function Ordinary Least Square (OLS) were used in analyzing the data. The trend results show that the estimated coefficient of the time variable was positive and statistically significant at 1% with respect to quantity of cocoa production and exportation in the period under review. The growth trend of cocoa production and exports in Nigeria over the period under study (compound rates of growth) were 27.38%.  Growth   rate of cocoa production (0.324) and export (-1.331) in Nigeria is relatively low (0.32) and (-1.331) probably due to decreasing domestic export. There was a significant difference in the mean quantity of cocoa production and exports within the period under review In the long-run rainfall (-0.425), temperature (0.328), area harvested of cocoa, influenced long-run cocoa production in Nigeria within the study period (-2.735). It was recommended thatiscal and monetary policies must be rigorously explored in order to promote   production andxport in order to add value to cocoar higher export prices in the international market. Policies should imperatively focus on yield inducing growth through improved seeds and high yielding varieties that will be tolerant to climate variation effects.